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Battery storage costs have evolved rapidly over the past several years, necessitating an update to storage cost projections used in long-term planning models and other activities. This work documents the development of these projections, which are based on recent publications of storage costs.
The projections are developed from an analysis of recent publications that include utility-scale storage costs. The suite of publications demonstrates wide variation in projected cost reductions for battery storage over time.
Figure ES-2 shows the overall capital cost for a 4-hour battery system based on those projections, with storage costs of $245/kWh, $326/kWh, and $403/kWh in 2030 and $159/kWh, $226/kWh, and $348/kWh in 2050.
Battery cost projections for 4-hour lithium-ion systems, with values normalized relative to 2022. The high, mid, and low cost projections developed in this work are shown as bolded lines. Figure ES-2.
In 2019, battery cost projections were updated based on publications that focused on utility-scale battery systems (Cole and Frazier 2019), with updates published in 2020 (Cole and Frazier 2020) and 2021 (Cole, Frazier, and Augustine 2021). There was no update published in 2022.
The round-trip efficiency is chosen to be 85%, which is well aligned with published values. Battery storage costs have evolved rapidly over the past several years, necessitating an update to storage cost projections used in long-term planning models and other activities.
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